Serious excess capacity is still in the continuation of the occasion, the price of power coal is a strong rise.
Over the past week, the domestic coal prices continued to rise. 5500 kcal Qinhuangdao coal prices rose 5.9%, to 450 yuan / ton. Central Bohai index rose 3.9% to 430 yuan / ton, the market traded hot.
Bloomberg said l arrived more than 15 months to the MSB after, Chinese thermal coal prices are expected to rise further, because inventory of Qinhuangdao port power coal bunker has dropped to the lowest in at least six years. The six large power plant inventory average number of available fell sharply from 3.2 to 14.8 days, hit its lowest level in nearly seven years over the same period, the average daily consumption of a total of 13% increase. In the first half of this year, ore deposits of coal fell by 8.6%.
Domestic coal production is falling. In the first half of this year, the domestic coal production fell 9.7% to 16.3 tons.
In sharp contrast with the sharp rise in coal prices, a serious excess of the coal industry to the slow progress of production capacity. Xinhua News Agency recently from the national coal industry to resolve the excess capacity relief and development experience in the field of communication to know, this year first half of the 17 regions and the central enterprises a total exit 7227 million tons of production capacity, but only completed the annual 2.5 million tons of goals and tasks of 29%.
Hunan, Jiangsu have each completed annual coal capacity in the goals and tasks of the 82.9% and 78.2%, Beijing, Shaanxi, Xinjiang also completed 50%, but there are nine regions not substantive start working, complete the annual task facing great pressure.
Sharp rebound in coal prices and the previous market is expected to be completely opposite. Not only China, the global coal prices are rising in the case of China's import demand unexpectedly picked up, this year's price increase of 30% to 60% between. Australian spot coal and European coal futures prices have returned to 60 U.S. dollars / ton above, the highest level since the first half of last year.
This rebound and after several years of international coal market slump different. Since the end of the commodity boom of ten years, coal is the first occurrence of a price decline of the species. Between 2011 and 2015, coal prices fall by more than 70%.
"No one expected that we will experience such prices," the Reuters quoted a senior trader said the view.
Why coal hurricane?
The price of coal is reminiscent of early accidental fluctuation of steel prices skyrocketing. But with the latter generally suspected exist great speculative factors are different, this wave of coal prices rose more likely to supply side is tight, demand side strong to explain.
In this week released a research report, Shen million Hongyuan analyst zhoutai, Liu Xiaoning will power coal price summed up in seasonal demand force: currently the industry chain of coking coal inventory is very low, insufficient production phenomenon in sharp, and profits of the steel improved to coking coal prices to provide space.
Recently with the summer hot weather continued, the south appeared hot weather, coupled with the price of coal is expected to rise, power purchase enthusiasm greatly improved, coal demand growth significantly, increase anchorage, transferred, the amount transferred significantly increased, port stocks continued to decline.
The futures Daily quoted Baocheng futures comprehensive analysis of multiple factors: origin of limited production, port coal stocks continued to decline, the emergence of a wide range of high temperature weather makes the downstream demand, caused by the Bohai Sea port power coal stocks continue to decline, far below the level of the same period last year. At the same time, increasing the number of port anchorage of ships, boats and other goods is a common phenomenon supports coastal coal freight rates continue to rise.
How long will a sharp rebound last?
ANZ bank said on Friday: "with China's resolve to vigorously promote excess capacity, coal prices in recent weeks soaring, which should be offered support to the current price."
Bloomberg News Agency also quoted the views of China coal transportation and marketing association director David Fang said that domestic production is greater than the estimated lead to tight supply. In the summer with coal prices may continue to rise in the peak period.
However, there are some analysts warned that, as the oil market, the current wave of coal prices will be short-lived, prices will soon begin to fall.
Commodities brokerage MAREX Spectron analyst Georgi Slavov that macro economic condition had deteriorated, he bears thermal coal prices.